It is up to Libya's why ... and who should :" O
On ilgiornale.it I just posted this analysis, which reproduce entirely here:
To understand what is happening in Tripoli must first consider the strategic framework. We are not addressed in the face of spontaneous, but induced aiming to replicate what happened in North Africa in the late eighties in the former Soviet Union. Even then, the revolt started from a small country, Lithuania, and at first no one imagined that the fire could spread to neighboring countries and it was even conceivable that the USSR would implode. The Maghreb is not the Soviet Union and there is no superstructure to blow up, but otherwise the similarities are obvious. The Tunisia is the smallest countries in the region and served as a catalyst for the other times. A wheel fell on the Mubarak regime, Libya is in turmoil, Iran and maybe tomorrow, maybe on the wave, Algeria, Morocco, Syria. What had in common schemes Tunisian, Libyan and Egyptian? Being ruled by authoritarian leaders, now old, discredited, they thought of spending power in young or incompetent loyalists.
It is no secret: the riots were widely encouraged - and in many ways prepared - by the U.S. government. For some time, Washington believed the inevitable explosion of popular discontent and fearing that would lead the revolt be Islamic extremists or extremist groups, has made what looks like a controlled explosion , at least in Egypt and Tunisia . Why is it controlled? Because before you embarrass Ben Ali and Mubarak, the Obama administration has cemented the already rock-solid relationship with the armies, which in fact never lost control of the situation and were the architects of the revolution. Do not Forget it today in Cairo and Tunis commanding generals, who in future will exert a decisive influence. Washington has won twice, has secured for many years to come, the loyalty of these two countries and has scored an extraordinary operation of image , showing the world that America is on the side of the people and democracy in regimes until now friends.
The dynamics are different because Gaddafi of Libya was not a U.S. ally and because the NGOs linked to the U.S. government have not been able to establish contacts and links with the Libyan civil society, in short, were unable to fertilize the soil in which to sprout the revolt. But that exploded the same. For infection and not feeding the loyalty of the army, but his discontent. As in all revolutions, are the armed forces to determine the outcome of popular revolts. Gaddafi during these hours pay the mistakes of the past. As noted by Domenico Quirico the press, the Colonel, an old man what was the coup, he never trusted generals and held wide-ranging purges. The men in uniform for 42 years have feared, but have never really loved. So now many of them, or damage to flight or go with the insurgents, especially in cities far from Tripoli. Gaddafi can count only on a small private militias and the army, this is the reason for a move otherwise inexplicable to recruit hundreds or perhaps thousands of African militiamen.
The consequence is inevitable: blood, blood and more blood. The impression is that Qaddafi will ultimately be forced to escape. The image, ridiculous, to raise in a car with an umbrella is reminiscent of Saddam Hussein being hunted by the Americans in the days of the fall of Baghdad. In any case, the situation could be very embarrassing for Italy. If the regime falls, Libya would again be the port of departure for our coastline for tens of thousands of immigrants. If you were to stand, it would be embarrassing for us to maintain good relations with a bloodthirsty leader. And in both cases millionaires dance contracts for our companies. Eni in the head. Let us not forget: Most of our energy supply depends on its own from North Africa. The explosion "controlled" is likely to be however, devastating to the interests of our country.
We have no choice and Italy certainly can not influence events, but the question is inevitable: the price is right?
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